5 Hurdles That Could Seriously Derail Dr. Moyo’s Presidential Ambitions

Nkosana Moyo, a former cabinet minister in President Mugabe’s government has announced his candidacy for the Zimbabwe president. 

Nkosana Moyo, a former cabinet minister in President Mugabe’s administration has announced his candidacy for the Zimbabwe presidency. But despite his attractive professional reputation, there are many hurdles ahead which he could find hard to break.

[Dr] Moyo announces his candidacy during a press conference in Harare today (Image/Open Parly)

 1.    He has no constituency 

Moyo whom we all know has all along been based in neighbouring South Africa where he heads the Mandela Institute for Development Studies, better known by the acronym MINDS, has no constituency in Zimbabwe. That’s a basic fact. And, in pedestrian lingo, he is a ‘mafikizolo’ which means he is virtually unknown in a political landscape where voters have the propensity of voting for political parties than candidates. So for him to first brand his newly launched political party [the] Alliance for the People’s Agenda [APA], is a herculean task — especially considering that there are less than 18 months before the next election — and for him to set up vibrant grassroots structures will present serious challenges for him and his team. 

2.    Moyo has written off the rural vote from the onset

It’s clear that in as much as Moyo is an academic par excellence and an intellect of repute, he is not in touch with the majority voters—who in this case are rural voters who in most cases understand only a language which speaks directly to their bellies. Moyo is too elite and seems to appeal to the elite class as shown by his ‘manifesto’ which he presented in Harare today where he announced his candidacy for the presidential post. For him to win the rural majority will be a hurdle and will require him to rethink his engagement strategy. Moyo should be reminded that Zimbabweans generally do not consider academic credentials when voting. They want ‘people like us’. 

3.    The Simba Makoni Dilemma and the big tent factor

That the majority of Zimbabweans no longer want Mugabe is not just a regime change slogan but a fact. But at this juncture, it would be irrational for anyone to think that Moyo will be voted by Zanu PF supporters. It can’t. Perhaps those who will be fired on the election eve. Right now, Zimbabweans tired of Mugabe’s regime are yearning for a coalition of opposition parties—to them the only strategy for dislodging Mugabe. And the coalition, based on numbers will, without any doubt, have the MDC-T as the major shareholder. So by presenting himself as a third force, an alternative, Moyo has invoked a ‘Simba Makoni dilemma’ which will prompt voters to perceive him as a project of the regime meant to divide the opposition vote. Although he unconvincingly attempted to quash this thinking in Harare today, the 'Simba Makoni fate' await him.

4.    It's just difficult to trust him 

What has Moyo done to deserve the Zimbabwean vote? Morgan Tsvangirai will probably say I have been thoroughly beaten by the regime and incarcerated on several occasions. Evan Mawarire will also say, I have ‘died’ for you several times. And Moyo will say, I resigned from Mugabe’s cabinet in dissatisfaction. Unconvincing, right? Although being beaten should not be used as a yardstick to measure credentials of a good presidential candidate, in Zimbabwe, where opposition is crushed by the State with brute force, one must convince voters not only with words but sacrifice which goes beyond just criticising the current government and it seems Moyo falls short of this credential. He is too smart, masses say. And he would not dare throw himself in the mud on their behalf. 

5.    Polarisation of Zimbabwe's political landscape 

There is nothing painful like being ‘othered’ as soon as you enter the political fray. Unlike deposed former Zimbabwe vice president Joice Mujuru who despite her tainted past, was somewhat perceived as a necessary third force when she announced her candidacy soon after being sacked from the ruling party, Moyo and his political party has been received with some suspicion by the generality of Zimbabweans and is viewed as just a ‘disturbance’ despite the indispensable fact that he, Moyo as an individual, promises to be a great Statesman. Generally, in Zimbabwe new players especially those who come on the eve of elections are generally not welcome and are perceived as notorious opportunists who are bent on splitting the vote. That as it may be, it the dispensation is indeed a hurdle which Moyo will find hard to trudge.